Country delegations, climate leaders, and civil society organizations are gearing up to head to Brazil’s coastal town of Belém to drive forward decisive climate action.  

This year’s Conference of Parties takes place against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions across the world. From the United States’ second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and new reports confirming the likelihood of the world’s failure to meet the 1.5 degree Celsius goal, this COP is yet another moment for global reflection on the increasingly urgent need for real progress. Here are six things to look out for on this year’s COP agenda.

1. The COP30 Presidency set its vision for a “Global Mutirão,” which translates to global collective action.

This concept enshrines the importance of decentralized and community-level organizing to build cooperative climate solutions rooted in traditional wisdom. Ahead of the COP30 opening, the Presidency and Bloomberg Philanthropies is hosting the COP30 Local Leaders Forum, bringing together mayors, governors, and municipal leaders in Rio de Janeiro. Meetings like this signal the recognition of subnational leadership on resilience. 

As the conversations around Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) take center stage, the work happening in urban centers is critically important. Research shows that city-level action has the potential to directly deliver one third of global emissions reductions by 2030. By elevating the platform of subnational climate leadership, COP30 will be placing the role of urban adaptation and mitigation investment high on the agenda. 

2. Speaking of NDCs, they are due. 

Countries are set to deliver their updated climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). As of publication, seventy-two countries have formally submitted them. While several others have committed to publish their new plans during COP30, there is already emerging concern. Many plans fall short of what is needed to keep the world on track for the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degree Celsius goal.

In parallel, the COP30 Presidency has prioritized discussions on National Adaptation Plans, which were due for assessment at last COP29 but fell off the agenda. While the two acronyms feel similar, these plans are distinct and critical. NDCs are essentially a mitigation plan for country’s to assess their progress on reducing national and global emissions. NAPs are detailed national plans for protecting people, communities, ecosystems, and economies from the unavoidable impacts of climate change. Both are important, and both will remain a large part of these year’s conversations.

3. The Roadmap from Baku to Belém is set to officially launch for implementation at COP30.

The Roadmap originated at last year’s COP when negotiators drove several climate financing initiatives forward, namely the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). The NCQG raised the bar on adaptation finance commitments. It set a global goal to raise $300 billion per year for climate finance by 2035. The Baku to Belem Roadmap then set an actionable framework. It outlined how countries can meet this new commitment. The Roadmap emphasizes actions and long-term goals that can put the world on track to raise $1.3 trillion annually for climate financing in the Global South by 2035. Now, in the final days before COP30, successful implementation requires moving from commitments to direct investments.  

4. This is the “Amazon COP.”

Every year, the Conference of the Parties receives an informal brand. This year’s summit has two: the “Implementation COP” and the “Amazon COP.” For the first time, COP will take place at the heart of the Amazon, the world’s most important carbon sink. The COP30 Presidency has explicitly called forests and oceans not only carbon sinks but also critical development assets. Against this backdrop, negotiators will discuss Brazil’s $125 billion proposal for the Tropical Forest Forever Facility. This is a blended-finance investment fund that rewards countries with long-term funding for mitigating deforestation and preserving tropical forests. 

However, despite these notable impacts, the “Amazon COP” has faced controversy. Earlier this year, construction for a new highway began that demolished part of the Amazon. Early reports noted that the work on Avenida Liberdade was listed among thirty projects preparing for COP30. The state government and the Special Secretariat for COP30 countered these claims. They stated that the construction plans existed prior to the city’s plans to host this year’s conference. Regardless, the work has resulted in the destruction of thousands of acres of rainforest. This has created pressure on the country and the conference given the COP30 Presidency’s rightful advocacy for biodiversity and nature.

5. The Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) is preparing to make its first payments.

The fund was first operationalized at COP28. It is a critical resource because it serves as a financing mechanism for frontline, low-income countries. These countries face severe climate impacts but often lack the resources needed to effectively address the costs to their infrastructure, communities, and heritage sites. However, it has yet to disburse funds.

That is set to change. The board approved a $250 million grant funding pool earlier this year, earmarked for disbursement by the end of 2026. However, there are some critical challenges. Notably, less than half of the funds pledged for FRLD have been received. At COP28, developed countries pledged over $780 million, but the only $361 million has come in. 

Now, the Fund is expected to launch its first call for proposals. This marks an important milestone for the climate financing gap. Still, its impact and scale may be limited if the pledges remain as such. Negotiators from the Global North must move pledges towards payouts to effectively deliver the support needed to meet the costs of increasingly extreme weather events around the world. 

6. This year’s conference raises the question of inclusivity because many may not make it to Belém.  

Throughout the year, there have been questions of Belém’s capacity to handle the influx of thousands of climate stakeholders and negotiators. The infrastructure and accommodation limits have, unfortunately, resulted in price-gouging. 

To address this, Brazil has offered alternative lodging options, ranging from cruise ships to schools. In parallel, the UN has increased their subsidy for lower-income countries to attend the conference. 

Yet despite these interventions, the cost and logistical hurdles threaten the spirit of inclusive, multilateral climate diplomacy. In fact, several countries have indicated that that they may not send delegations due to logistical challenges that effectively priced them out of negotiations. The Alliance of Small Island States even submitted a letter to the COP30 Presidency. In it, they expressed deep concern, citing that the prohibitive costs threaten inclusivity. Now more than ever, an inclusive negotiation process is not just a logistical necessity. It is a moral imperative. So, as the world heads to Belém, it’s important to consider who is at the table… and who is not.