As Europe’s heat wave shifts east, seasonal resilience is no longer enough
By Eleni Myrivili Sat, Jul 4, 2026
Last week, Europe received another stark reminder that extreme heat is no longer an exceptional event.
In France, temperatures climbed for several days above 40 degrees Celsius in many regions. Thousands of schools closed, transport was disrupted, and hospitals were overburdened.
Meanwhile, England experienced one of its hottest starts to July on record. Rail services slowed because of overheated infrastructure, and cities struggled through dangerously hot nights. Across Western Europe, emergency services issued repeated health warnings as millions of people sought relief from temperatures once considered unimaginable.
The extreme temperatures spreading across Eastern Europe, undeniably intensified by human-caused climate change, will be a litmus test for deeper vulnerabilities.
This article is part of The Climate Check-In, a series designed for readers who want to go beyond the headlines. Authored by a trio of senior experts, these articles draw on decades of experience in climate resilience to highlight the most critical developments in the field. Start your month with The Climate Check-In at the top of your inbox.
Extreme temperatures are revealing vulnerabilities
Many parts of Eastern Europe have historically experienced fewer prolonged heat waves than Southern Europe. The region is cooled by prevailing winds from the Atlantic and has higher levels of soil moisture, which accelerates evapotranspiration. But the continent’s new extreme climate reality will push the region’s natural defenses to the brink.
Buildings and public services have simply not been designed for this heat. Homes often lack cooling. Schools and workplaces are not adapted for extreme heat. Many cities are just beginning to develop comprehensive heat action plans, early warning systems, and long-term adaptation strategies.
In countries where prolonged extreme heat events have been relatively rare, people are less accustomed to changing daily routines, limiting outdoor activity during the hottest hours, checking on vulnerable neighbors, or recognizing the early symptoms of heat illness. These behavioral adaptations are crucial and just as important as physical investments in cooling our cities. But particularly in Eastern Europe, embedding heat resilience will be a tough challenge.
Part of the problem is demographic. Many Eastern European countries have some of Europe’s oldest populations, and older adults are especially vulnerable to extreme heat because aging reduces the body’s ability to regulate temperature. Chronic illnesses, certain medications, social isolation, and limited incomes can also make it difficult to stay cool—and all of these factors are more common in older populations.
This heat wave is particularly threatening because of the higher overnight temperatures. When nights stay hot, the body cannot cool down and recover from daytime heat. This is exacerbated by the fact that only about 20 percent of European households have air conditioning. And though demand is rising exponentially in key regions like the Balkans, low-income households will continue to lack affordable cooling for the foreseeable future.
A threat without borders
But hot nights and hotter days will not only affect urban populations. They will have implications outside of city limits, too. Eastern Europe is one of Europe’s agricultural heartlands, and many crops are now entering critical stages of development.
Wheat in countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and parts of Ukraine is particularly vulnerable during grain filling. Heat shortens the growing season and reduces both yields and grain quality. While the region’s important sunflower crop tolerates dry conditions better, prolonged heat reduces seed production and oil content. This will have a direct effect on global vegetable oil markets. Fruit orchards and vineyards are likewise exposed to heat stress, while livestock experience declining productivity as heat reduces feed intake and increases the risk of disease.
Rethinking policy for a hotter climate
As this heat wave moves east, extreme heat is not simply a weather story. It is a textbook example of systemic and cascading risk. One climate hazard triggers interconnected impacts across public health, food systems, energy, water, transport, and the economy in general.
The heat dome does not respect borders. It reveals where societies remain most vulnerable and unprepared. As extreme heat becomes one of Europe’s defining climate risks, adaptation must be treated not as a seasonal response, but as an essential investment in public health, critical infrastructure, and long-term resilience.
Eleni Myrivili is the global chief heat officer for the Atlantic Council’s Climate Resilience Center and UNEP. She is also a member of the European Union Mission Adaptation Board and the board of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report.
