It’s a triple COP year. What does this mean for the MENA region?
By Hana Abdelatty Fri, Dec 6, 2024
Each year, the United Nations Conference of Parties (COP) marks a pivotal moment for climate leaders around the world. While COP is widely recognized for climate-focused milestones like the Paris Agreement, it is part of a broader framework of summits addressing interconnected environmental challenges. In addition to climate negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), parallel COP summits are held under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
These meetings occur on an annual or biennial schedule and are typically staggered across different years. However, this year marks a rare alignment. For the first time since 2000, all three are happening in the same calendar year.
This comes at a critical time. Record breaking heat waves, intensifying flooding, and crippling wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense. This year is predicted to be the hottest on record, breaking the record set just last year. Against this backdrop, the triple-COP year presents a unique opportunity. Global leaders must galvanize climate action and push for solutions that address the interconnected challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation.
What does the triple-COP year mean for the Middle East?
As this year’s summits tackle the interrelated challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and desertification, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has a critical window to address their unique climate vulnerabilities. The region deals with the impacts of the climate crisis in notable ways. Already, it is the world’s most water-stressed region. By 2030, regional averages could fall below water scarcity levels, threatening the collapse of entire water systems. This crisis is compounded by extreme heat levels which are accelerating faster than the global average. In fact, parts of the region will become unliveable over the next thirty years. If emissions remain high, summer temperatures in Gulf countries can soar to 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit). That’s far beyond anything a human body can handle.
The region has taken center stage at recent COPs. Egypt hosted COP27, where the milestone Sharm El-Sheikh Adaptation Agenda was introduced. The agenda outlined thirty essential adaptation targets to build global climate resilience.
The following year, COP28 was held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where the guidelines to operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund were agreed upon. This fund created a pathway for developing countries to access financial support for climate-related damages. Now, Saudi Arabia is hosting COP16 on desertification, set to be the largest UN land summit andpositioning the region to drive conversation on increasing investment towards drought resilience. However, despite this emerging leadership, several MENA countries have faced criticism due to their large oil production. In fact, COP28 faced ongoing criticism since its appointed president was an oil executive.
Why is this triple COP year so significant?
The United Nations Conference of Parties (COP) is a series of global summits held under the 1992 Rio Conventions. This includes United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Convention on Biological Diversity (UNCBD), and the Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
For the first time in over two decades, the three conferences were held over a six-week period. They address the issues of climate change, biodiversity, and desertification respectively.
A region at the brink
Nevertheless, these countries remain disproportionately affected by climate change. These impacts are also unequally spread across the region. Gulf countries like Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia contribute some of the highest emissions per capita. Despite their ambitious net zero and emissions reductions plans, these countries are not on track to meet their climate goals. On the other hand, countries like Yemen and Sudan face severe climate risks like drought and extreme heat, but lack the financial capacity to implement robust climate solutions. This challenge is amplified by ongoing conflict and political instability which limits their institutional capacity to engage with international finance mechanisms and secure critical investments.
Given the challenges of funding climate action, one topic has been at the top of the agenda from Sharm El-Sheikh to Dubai: climate finance. The region’s economic disparity underscores the need for equitable financing mechanisms that ensure both high-emitting and vulnerable nations contribute to and benefit from comprehensive climate action.
However, to date, the region is one of the lowest recipients of climate financing. Over the past three decades, only 6.6 percent of cumulative global climate financing was directed to MENA countries. Additionally, over half of the financing they received came as loans. This adds pressure to already high debt levels in some countries, limiting their capacity to invest in adaptation and mitigation measures.
Meanwhile, despite having per capita emissions that surpass many developed nations, Gulf countries are not classified as “developed” under the UNFCCC framework. This classification permits them to avoid mandatory financial commitments under climate agreements. This has become a major point of criticism. Lower-income nations have argued that due to their rate of emissions and their wealth, Gulf countries should have greater financial obligations.
What MENA countries can expect from this year’s COP summits
The triple COP year offers MENA countries a critical platform to become leaders in climate resilience. As hosts, they have been uniquely positioned to advocate for greater international cooperation and investment tailored to the region’s vulnerabilities.
At COP29, the UAE was a prominent voice in discussions on the global transition to net zero and the launch of the Loss and Damage Fund. Its pavilion hosted sixty side events that spotlighted regional priorities like water security and climate financing for the Global South. Despite being one of the highest emitting countries in the region, the UAE has begun to make more meaningful commitments.
Now, in Riyadh, parties are expected to align on plans to restore degraded land by 2030 and introduce new funding for drought resilience. The MENA region is uniquely vulnerable. Up to 70 percent of its land is at risk of desertification.
Currently, the resources dedicated to tackling land degradation barely scratch the surface of what is needed. Saudi Arabia is uniquely positioned to champion dialogue and mobilize financial commitments at COP16 on desertification. With over 90 percent of the country covered by desert, Saudi Arabia is intimately aware of the dangers of land degradation. It has been long committed to investing in tackling this issue. By leveraging its role as the COP16 Presidency, it can attract international investment to effectively address the region’s land management challenges.
With additional milestones expected at COP16 on desertification, the convergence of COP summits has paved the way for diverse funding opportunities that MENA countries can leverage to address regional climate challenges.
Regional tensions on the phase out agenda
While countries in the MENA region face similar climate challenges, approaches towards climate mitigation and adaptation between countries have differed. Morocco, Egypt, and the UAE have taken notable steps to diversify their energy portfolio away from greenhouse gases. In fact, the UAE doubled down on its commitment to transition away from fossil fuels at COP29. In contrast, one of the largest crude oil exporters, Saudi Arabia, has faced criticism for undermining global negotiations to phase out fossil fuels.
Across the region, investments in climate adaptation have also been inconsistent, reflecting broader challenges in building adaptive capacity across countries. Nearly all MENA countries have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to outline greenhouse gas reduction strategies. However, only a few—Kuwait, Sudan, the Palestinian Authority, and Iraq—have officially submitted National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). The absence of integrated adaptation planning undermines each country’s ability to coordinate efforts and build resilience.
This gap in adaptation planning is also symptomatic of broader funding challenges. Approximately one quarter of climate funding received within the region has been directed towards climate adaptation. Most of the limited funding it receives is directed to mitigation. Bridging this adaptation gap will require the new financing mechanisms established at COP summits to prioritize regional investments in adaptation. As the region faces worsening climate risks, it must be better equipped to protect people now.
Moving towards a climate-resilient future for the region
As the triple COP year draws to a close, the new funding streams present a significant opportunity for the region. The Cali Fund, for example, channels investment towards biodiversity conservation. At COP29, an agreement was reached on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). Despite falling short of the proposed $1.3 trillion commitment, the new goal triples climate financing for developing countries.
However, the region also remains at a crossroads. For international climate commitments to have an impact, the region must simultaneously prioritize the move to a net zero economy. While countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken on a leadership role at COP summits, this cannot replace meaningful efforts to phase out fossil fuels. These countries must lead by example, committing to increase climate finance for the most vulnerable countries while scaling up efforts to diversify their economies and reduce oil dependence.
As we look towards the opening of COP16 on desertification, it is essential that adaptation is placed on the forefront of the agenda by the Saudi Arabian Presidency. The MENA region is already facing the costs of climate change. So, a robust climate adaptation strategy is essential. Emphasizing sustainable land use and innovative water management practices will be key to enhancing resilience and attracting global investments.
Looking beyond the triple COP year, MENA countries must leverage this momentum. The region understands its unique vulnerabilities and must advocate for clear progress and support. By integrating sustainable development in long-term national strategies, countries can best address the interconnected challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation while seizing opportunities for economic diversification and long-term community resilience.
